Research Article

EFFECT OF MARKET TIMING ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF LISTED CONSUMER GOODS FIRMS IN NIGERIA

Jamilu Muhamma1*, Ahmad Kabir Auwal1
1 Department of Business Administration and Entrepreneurship Faculty of Management Sciences, Kaduna State University, Kaduna
* Corresponding author: jamilumohdfatika@gmail.com
Published: Jun, 2026
DOI: 10.67894/bbr.2026.8q0ogoup
Pages: 177-201
Views: 28
Downloads: 7

Abstract

This study empirically investigates how strategic market timing decisions dictate the financial performance of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria over the period 2016 to 2024. Utilizing a purposive sample of ten firms, the study employed panel data regression specifically a Random Effects model with cluster-robust standard errors, to analyze Return on Equity (ROE) against Current Market-to-Book Ratio (MTB), Historical Market-to-Book Ratio (HMTB), Equity Issuance (EQ_ISSUE), and Firm Size. The results indicate that HMTB exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on ROE, confirming the path-dependency of capital structure and the lasting value of historical capital buffers. Conversely, current MTB proved statistically insignificant, exposing a Valuation Illusion artificially inflated by severe macroeconomic shocks and foreign exchange losses. Furthermore, EQ_ISSUE demonstrated a massive, albeit statistically insignificant, negative trajectory on ROE. This highlights a critical Distress Timing phenomenon, where firms issue defensive equity to survive crises, inadvertently destroying shortterm shareholder wealth. Ultimately, the study validates Market Timing Theory within a distressed emerging market context, recommending that managers proactively secure equity during genuine overvaluation and avoid defensive dilution.

Keywords

Market Timing Financial Performance Capital Structure Return on Equity (ROE) Distress Timing

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How to Cite

Muhamma, J., & Auwal, A. K. (2026). EFFECT OF MARKET TIMING ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF LISTED CONSUMER GOODS FIRMS IN NIGERIA. Bayero Business Review, 10(1), 177-201. https://doi.org/10.67894/bbr.2026.8q0ogoup

J. Muhamma, and A. K. Auwal, "EFFECT OF MARKET TIMING ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF LISTED CONSUMER GOODS FIRMS IN NIGERIA," Bayero Business Review, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 177-201, June 2026. doi: 10.67894/bbr.2026.8q0ogoup

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