Resilience of Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence from United State of America Tariff Treatment of UMSCA and Japan in the Post-Crisis Era

This study examines the resilience of regional trade agreements through an analysis of U.S. tariff treatment under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the U.S.–Japan Trade Agreement, using data obtained from the 2025 U.S. Tariff Database. The study adopts a quantitative research design using secondary data collected by extracting product-level tariff schedules reported under the Harmonized System (HS-8) classification. The dependent variable, tariff resilience, is proxied by the extent and stability of preferential tariff relief across tariff lines, while the independent variables include MFN tariff rate, USMCA preferential rate, and Japan preferential rate, representing multilateral, regional, and bilateral treatment respectively. Using the Kaplan–Meier survival simulation; this study evaluated the persistence and depth of preferential treatment over time, with findings showing a clear hierarchy in tariff treatment. MFN rates are consistently the highest, Japan’s tariffs provide partial but significant relief, and USMCA tariffs are almost entirely eliminated. Agricultural products, processed foods, and manufactured goods benefit most from complete tariff removal under USMCA, while Japan’s concessions, although meaningful, leave some residual exposure. These findings further illustrates that USMCA offers a 100% survival rate for covered tariff lines, reflecting its strength as a resilience mechanism, whereas MFN treatment gradually declines in coverage; highlighting the strategic importance of regional trade agreements in stabilizing trade flows during crises. The study concludes that deep regional integration enhances resilience, while multilateral frameworks require revitalization to complement regional arrangements.