Resilience of Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence from United State of America Tariff Treatment of UMSCA and Japan in the Post-Crisis Era
1 Department of Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences Ahmadu Bello University Zaria
2 Department of Business Administration and Management Federal Polytechnic Daura Daura – Katsina State, Nigeria
* Corresponding author: ismaidel@yahoo.com
2 Department of Business Administration and Management Federal Polytechnic Daura Daura – Katsina State, Nigeria
* Corresponding author: ismaidel@yahoo.com
Abstract
This study examines the resilience of regional trade agreements through an analysis of U.S. tariff treatment
under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the U.S.–Japan Trade Agreement, using
data obtained from the 2025 U.S. Tariff Database. The study adopts a quantitative research design using
secondary data collected by extracting product-level tariff schedules reported under the Harmonized
System (HS-8) classification. The dependent variable, tariff resilience, is proxied by the extent and stability
of preferential tariff relief across tariff lines, while the independent variables include MFN tariff rate,
USMCA preferential rate, and Japan preferential rate, representing multilateral, regional, and bilateral
treatment respectively. Using the Kaplan–Meier survival simulation; this study evaluated the persistence
and depth of preferential treatment over time, with findings showing a clear hierarchy in tariff treatment.
MFN rates are consistently the highest, Japan’s tariffs provide partial but significant relief, and USMCA
tariffs are almost entirely eliminated. Agricultural products, processed foods, and manufactured goods
benefit most from complete tariff removal under USMCA, while Japan’s concessions, although meaningful,
leave some residual exposure. These findings further illustrates that USMCA offers a 100% survival rate
for covered tariff lines, reflecting its strength as a resilience mechanism, whereas MFN treatment gradually
declines in coverage; highlighting the strategic importance of regional trade agreements in stabilizing trade
flows during crises. The study concludes that deep regional integration enhances resilience, while
multilateral frameworks require revitalization to complement regional arrangements.
Keywords
Japan trade agreement
MFN tariffs
regional integration
survival analysis
Tariff resilience
USMCA
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How to Cite
Idris, I. T., & Abasido, A. U. (2025). Resilience of Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence from United State of America Tariff Treatment of UMSCA and Japan in the Post-Crisis Era. Bayero University Journal of Finance, 2(1), 17-27. https://doi.org/10.67894/bjf.2025.fmcrhomo
I. T. Idris, and A. U. Abasido, "Resilience of Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence from United State of America Tariff Treatment of UMSCA and Japan in the Post-Crisis Era," Bayero University Journal of Finance, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 17-27, June 2025. doi: 10.67894/bjf.2025.fmcrhomo
